January-February Imported Bauxite Supply Surged 25.6% YoY Alumina Fundamentals Remain Loose [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.24 Futures Market: The most-traded 2505 alumina contract opened at 3,011 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,087 yuan/mt, a low of 3,010 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,072 yuan/mt, up 51 yuan/mt, with a 1.68% increase. Open interest was 211,000 lots. Ore: As of March 21, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $93.33/mt, down $0.06/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to a decrease in caustic soda prices in Shandong; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $91/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $87/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $81/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. According to data on March 21, the total weekly arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports were 4.2601 million mt, an increase of 115,000 mt from the previous week; the total weekly departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 3.3296 million mt, a decrease of 1.263 million mt from the previous week; the total weekly departures of bauxite from major ports in Australia were 581,200 mt, a decrease of 545,500 mt from the previous week. Spot Alumina: On Friday, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for some spot alumina, with a transaction price of 3,200 yuan/mt delivered to the factory. Industry News: According to Chinese customs, China exported 404,900 mt of alumina in January-February 2025, up 45.9% YoY; China imported 77,600 mt of alumina in January-February 2025, up 87.9% YoY; net exports of alumina in January-February 2025 were 327,300 mt, down 189.4% YoY. Overseas Alumina Transactions: On March 21, 25,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas, with a transaction price of $395/mt FOB Go Dau, Vietnam, for shipment in late April to early May. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 16.21 million mt of bauxite in January 2025, up 8.23% MoM and 23.31% YoY; in February 2025, China imported 14.41 million mt of bauxite, down 11.06% MoM and up 28.25% YoY. In January-February 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 30.62 million mt, up 25.6% YoY. Bauxite Port Inventory: As of March 21, according to SMM, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 15.61 million mt, an increase of 140,000 mt from the previous week. According to the latest announcement, Nanshan Aluminum International Holding Co., Ltd. plans to launch a global offering in the future, with a plan to issue 88.24 million shares. The Hong Kong public offering will account for 10%, with an issue price range of HK$26.6 to HK$31.5 per share. The company is expected to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 25. The focus of this spin-off will be on the company's alumina business sector in Southeast Asia, which will rely on Indonesian bauxite resources to layout the industry chain. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on March 21, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 147 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract at 11:30 am. Warrant Daily Report: On March 21, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 5,110 mt to 278,100 mt compared to the previous trading day. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 29,100 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 49,800 mt. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,504 mt to 21,300 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,606 mt to 173,300 mt. Overseas Market: As of March 21, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $425/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.2/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.27, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,743 yuan/mt, 581 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. For exports, based on the latest spot alumina transaction price in Shandong, the domestic alumina export cost was about $450/mt, lower than the overseas alumina spot price, and the export window remained closed. Summary: Recently, the weekly operating rate of alumina has been adjusted downward. As of last Thursday, according to SMM data, the total national operating capacity of metallurgical alumina decreased to 88.01 million mt/year, but the reduction was limited. As of last Thursday, the total operating capacity of domestic aluminum was 43.84 million mt/year, equivalent to an alumina demand operating capacity of around 84.4 million mt/year. Even considering alumina net exports, the fundamentals still show a supply surplus. In the short term, alumina prices may continue to face pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in alumina operating capacity. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to SMM.]